IMF Revises Ghana Growth to 4.8% as NTEs Hit $5bn, Damang Mine Changes Hands

Accra — Ghana’s economic momentum continues to build, with the International Monetary Fund revising its 2026 growth forecast upward, non-traditional exports reaching a record $5 billion, and a local mining firm assuming control of a major gold mine.

The developments, spanning macroeconomic forecasting, trade performance, mining sector ownership, and domestic commerce, paint a picture of an economy gaining traction across multiple fronts. While challenges remain—including fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability—the cumulative indicators suggest Ghana’s recovery from the 2022–2023 crisis is firmly on track.

Here is a detailed Accra Street Journal breakdown of the key economy and trade developments.

Economic Outlook: IMF Revises Ghana’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.8%

The International Monetary Fund has revised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 4.8 per cent, according to statements made during the ongoing Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.

The revised forecast represents an increase from previous projections and positions Ghana as one of the faster-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. It reflects the IMF’s assessment that Ghana’s economic recovery is proceeding more rapidly than anticipated, supported by fiscal consolidation, stabilising inflation, and improving external conditions.

Drivers of the Upgrade

Several factors underpin the IMF’s revised forecast:

• Inflation moderation: Ghana’s annual inflation rate eased to 3.2 per cent in March 2026, the lowest level since the 2021 rebasing. Lower inflation supports household purchasing power and reduces uncertainty for businesses.

• Cedi stability: The currency has remained relatively stable, supported by the IMF programme, improved foreign exchange reserves, and tighter monetary policy.

• Debt restructuring progress: Ghana has signed multiple bilateral debt restructuring agreements, including the 11th such agreement with EXIM India, reducing debt service burdens and freeing fiscal space.

• Stronger-than-expected trade performance: Non-traditional exports reached $5 billion in 2025, providing a buffer against volatility in traditional commodity exports like gold, oil, and cocoa.

• Improved business confidence: The combination of lower inflation, stable exchange rates, and policy predictability has boosted investor and business sentiment.

Comparison with World Bank Projections

The IMF’s 4.8 per cent forecast aligns closely with the World Bank’s recent projection for Ghana’s 2026 growth. Both institutions expect Ghana to outperform the sub-Saharan Africa average, which is projected to grow at approximately 4 per cent in 2026.

The convergence of forecasts from the two major international financial institutions provides a strong signal of confidence in Ghana’s economic trajectory.

Implications for Policy

The upward revision gives the government some breathing room. Stronger growth generates higher tax revenues, reducing the fiscal adjustment needed to meet IMF programme targets. It also creates space for increased spending on infrastructure, health, and education.

However, the government has cautioned against complacency. The IMF programme remains in effect, and fiscal discipline will be necessary to consolidate the gains achieved so far.

Non-Traditional Exports: NTEs Reach $5 Billion in 2025

Ghana’s non-traditional exports (NTEs) reached $5 billion in 2025, representing a 30.7 per cent increase year-on-year, according to data released by the Ghana Export Promotion Authority (GEPA).

The figure is significant because NTEs have historically lagged behind traditional commodity exports—gold, oil, and cocoa—which have dominated Ghana’s export basket for decades. The strong growth in NTEs indicates that the economy is diversifying, reducing reliance on a small number of volatile commodities.

What Are Non-Traditional Exports?

Non-traditional exports are all exports other than the three traditional commodities: gold, oil, and cocoa. The category includes:

• Processed and semi-processed goods (e.g., cocoa butter, cashew nuts, shea butter, canned tuna)

• Manufactured products (e.g., textiles, garments, pharmaceuticals, plastics)

• Agricultural products (e.g., fresh vegetables, fruits, yams, pineapples, bananas)

• Industrial raw materials (e.g., limestone, bauxite, manganese)

• Services (e.g., tourism, financial services, information technology)

The NTE category is diverse, spanning agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Growth in NTEs typically reflects a more sophisticated, value-added economy.

Drivers of NTE Growth

Several factors contributed to the 30.7 per cent increase in NTEs:

• Improved market access: Ghana benefits from preferential trade arrangements, including the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) with the United States and the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union.

• AfCFTA implementation: The African Continental Free Trade Area has reduced barriers to intra-African trade, opening new markets for Ghanaian exporters.

• Private sector investment: Ghanaian manufacturers and processors have invested in capacity expansion, quality improvement, and certification.

• Government support: GEPA has implemented programmes to support exporters, including market research, trade missions, and capacity building.

• Currency competitiveness: The cedi’s stability has made Ghanaian exports more competitive without the volatility that previously deterred long-term contracting.

Leading NTE Products

While GEPA has not released a full product breakdown for 2025, historical data suggests the leading NTE products include:

• Processed cocoa products (cocoa butter, cocoa powder, cocoa paste)

• Cashew nuts and shea butter

• Tuna and other processed fish

• Pineapples, bananas, and other fresh fruits

• Yams, vegetables, and other agricultural products

• Textiles and garments

• Plastic products

• Pharmaceuticals

The product mix has been shifting toward higher-value processed goods over time, reflecting industrial upgrading.

Significance for the Economy

The $5 billion NTE milestone matters for several reasons:

• Foreign exchange diversification: NTEs provide a source of foreign currency that is less volatile than gold, oil, and cocoa prices.

• Job creation: NTE sectors, particularly agriculture processing and manufacturing, are more labour-intensive than extractive industries.

• Value addition: Processing raw materials before export captures more value within Ghana, generating higher incomes and tax revenues.

• Resilience: A diversified export basket is more resilient to price shocks in any single commodity.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite the strong performance, challenges remain. Ghanaian exporters face competition from other African and Asian producers, quality and certification requirements in developed markets, and logistics constraints including port delays and high transport costs.

GEPA has set ambitious targets for future NTE growth, aiming to reach $10 billion in NTE exports by 2028. Achieving that target will require continued investment in production capacity, quality infrastructure, and market development.

Mining Sector: Engineers & Planners Assumes Control of Damang Gold Mine

In a significant development for Ghana’s mining sector, local firm Engineers & Planners has officially assumed control of the Damang Gold Mine. The company is led by Ibrahim Mahama, a Ghanaian businessman and brother of former President John Dramani Mahama.

The takeover represents a transfer of ownership from an international mining company to a Ghanaian-owned firm, reflecting the government’s policy of increasing local participation in the extractive sector.

About Damang Gold Mine

The Damang Gold Mine is located in the Western Region of Ghana, approximately 35 kilometres north of the town of Tarkwa. The mine has been in operation for decades and has produced millions of ounces of gold over its lifespan.

Damang is one of Ghana’s significant gold mines, though it is smaller than the giant Tarkwa Mine operated by Gold Fields and the Ahafo Mine operated by Newmont. The mine has both open-pit and underground operations.

Engineers & Planners

Engineers & Planners is a Ghanaian-owned mining and civil engineering company with a track record in the sector. The company has been involved in mining operations, contracting, and equipment supply. The Damang acquisition represents a significant expansion of its direct ownership and operational responsibilities.

Ibrahim Mahama, the company’s leader, is a well-known figure in Ghanaian business and political circles. He has previously been involved in various sectors, including mining, transport, and agriculture.

Policy Context

The takeover aligns with the government’s Local Content and Local Participation regulations for the mining sector, which require that Ghanaian entities have increasing ownership and control of mining operations over time. The policy aims to ensure that Ghana’s mineral wealth benefits Ghanaians more directly, rather than flowing primarily to foreign shareholders.

The Minerals and Mining (Local Content and Local Participation) Regulations, 2020 (L.I. 2431) set out targets for Ghanaian ownership, procurement from local suppliers, and employment of Ghanaian citizens in the mining sector.

Implications for the Sector

The Engineers & Planners takeover of Damang has several implications:

• Local ownership: A significant gold mine is now under Ghanaian ownership and control, rather than foreign ownership.

• Employment: Engineers & Planners has indicated its commitment to maintaining and potentially expanding employment at the mine.

• Local procurement: Ghanaian-owned mining companies are generally more likely to procure goods and services from local suppliers than international firms.

• Tax and royalty compliance: The government expects that local ownership will improve compliance with tax and royalty obligations, though this remains to be seen.

Challenges

Mining is a capital-intensive, technically complex business. Engineers & Planners will need to demonstrate that it has the financial resources, technical expertise, and operational discipline to manage the Damang mine effectively.

International mining companies bring decades of experience, global supply chains, and access to capital markets. A local firm may face challenges in these areas, particularly if gold prices decline or operating costs rise.

The government will be watching closely. The success or failure of the Damang takeover will influence future decisions about local content policies and the transfer of other mining assets to Ghanaian ownership.

24-Hour Economy: Government Commissions New Markets, Including Tamale Project

The government is commissioning new 24-hour economy markets, including a major project in Tamale, as part of a broader initiative to stimulate local trade and economic growth.

The 24-hour economy policy is designed to extend economic activity beyond traditional daylight hours, creating opportunities for businesses to operate multiple shifts, increase output, and generate employment.

The Tamale Market Project

The Tamale market project is a significant investment in the northern regional capital. The market is designed to operate around the clock, with lighting, security, sanitation, and other infrastructure necessary for night-time trading.

The project aims to:

• Increase trading hours: Vendors can sell goods beyond traditional market hours, capturing demand from customers who work during the day.

• Reduce congestion: Extending trading hours spreads demand across a longer period, reducing overcrowding during peak hours.

• Improve security: Proper lighting and security arrangements make night-time trading safer for vendors and customers.

• Boost local economy: Increased trading activity generates income for vendors, creates jobs, and stimulates demand for related services (transport, catering, security).

Other 24-Hour Economy Markets

The Tamale project is part of a broader programme that includes similar initiatives in other regional capitals and major commercial centres. The government has identified markets in Accra, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, and other cities for potential 24-hour conversion.

Policy Rationale

The 24-hour economy policy is based on the recognition that Ghana’s economy operates significantly below its potential capacity. Many businesses close by early evening, leaving infrastructure—roads, electricity, water—underutilised during night-time hours.

By encouraging 24-hour operations, the government aims to:

• Increase output: The same infrastructure can support more economic activity.

• Create jobs: Additional shifts require additional workers.

• Improve convenience: Consumers can access goods and services at more flexible hours.

• Support night-time workers: Workers in healthcare, security, transport, and other sectors need access to markets and services during night-time hours.

Challenges and Criticisms

The 24-hour economy policy has faced some criticism. Skeptics question whether there is sufficient demand for night-time trading to justify the investment. Security concerns remain, particularly in areas with high crime rates. Additionally, extended operating hours increase costs for vendors, who must pay for lighting, security, and possibly additional staff.

The government has responded that the policy is not mandatory. Vendors who prefer to operate during traditional hours can continue to do so. The 24-hour infrastructure provides an option, not a requirement.

Early Results

It is too early to assess the impact of the 24-hour economy markets. The Tamale project is just being commissioned, and other markets are at various stages of development. The government will need to monitor outcomes—including trading volumes, vendor incomes, and employment—to determine whether the policy is achieving its objectives.

Interconnections: How the Pieces Fit Together

While each development stands alone, they are connected through the broader theme of economic transformation.

IMF growth revision: Stronger growth provides the fiscal space and confidence needed to invest in NTE promotion, mining localisation, and 24-hour economy infrastructure.

NTE growth: Export diversification reduces reliance on volatile commodity prices, making Ghana’s economy more resilient and growth more sustainable.

Damang takeover: Local ownership of mining assets aligns with the government’s industrial policy objectives, though success is not guaranteed.

24-hour economy: Extending trading hours utilises existing infrastructure more efficiently, potentially boosting output and employment without requiring massive new investment.

Taken together, the developments suggest an economy that is diversifying, localising, and extending its operational hours. Each trend has its own drivers and challenges, but the cumulative direction is toward a more dynamic, resilient, and inclusive economy.

Outlook From ASJ

The coming months will reveal whether the positive trends continue.

IMF programme: The next IMF review will assess Ghana’s performance against programme targets. Continued compliance is necessary to maintain access to financing and policy credibility.

NTE growth: GEPA has set ambitious targets for 2026 and beyond. Achieving them will require sustained investment and market development.

Damang operation: Engineers & Planners must demonstrate that it can operate the mine effectively, maintaining production levels and meeting financial obligations.

24-hour economy: The Tamale market and other projects will be evaluated for their impact on trade, employment, and local economic development.

For Ghana, the indicators are pointing in the right direction. But sustained progress will require continued discipline, investment, and policy consistency.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. Why did the IMF revise Ghana’s growth forecast upward to 4.8%?

The IMF revised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast upward due to several factors: inflation moderation (3.2% in March 2026), cedi stability, progress on debt restructuring (including the 11th bilateral agreement with EXIM India), stronger-than-expected trade performance ($5 billion in non-traditional exports), and improved business confidence.

2. What are non-traditional exports, and why did they reach $5 billion?

Non-traditional exports are all exports other than gold, oil, and cocoa. They include processed goods (cocoa butter, cashew nuts, shea butter, canned tuna), manufactured products (textiles, pharmaceuticals), agricultural products (fresh vegetables, fruits), and services. NTEs reached $5 billion in 2025, a 30.7% increase, driven by improved market access (AGOA, EPA, AfCFTA), private sector investment, and government support programmes.

3. Who is Engineers & Planners, and what mine have they taken over?

Engineers & Planners is a Ghanaian-owned mining and civil engineering company led by Ibrahim Mahama. The company has officially assumed control of the Damang Gold Mine in Ghana’s Western Region. The takeover transfers ownership from an international mining company to a local firm, aligning with the government’s local content and local participation policies.

4. What is the 24-hour economy policy, and where are the new markets?

The 24-hour economy policy aims to extend economic activity beyond traditional daylight hours, creating opportunities for businesses to operate multiple shifts. The government is commissioning new 24-hour economy markets, including a major project in Tamale, with similar initiatives planned for Accra, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, and other regional capitals.

5. How do these developments fit together?

The developments are connected through the theme of economic transformation. Stronger IMF growth forecasts provide confidence and fiscal space. NTE growth diversifies exports, reducing reliance on volatile commodities. The Damang takeover increases local ownership of mining assets. The 24-hour economy policy utilises existing infrastructure more efficiently. Together, they point toward a more dynamic, resilient, and inclusive economy.

6. What challenges remain despite these positive indicators?

Challenges include maintaining fiscal discipline under the IMF programme, sustaining NTE growth amid international competition, ensuring Engineers & Planners operates Damang effectively, and demonstrating that 24-hour economy markets generate sufficient demand to justify investment. Additionally, infrastructure constraints, particularly in energy and transport, remain persistent challenges.