Introduction: The Business That Planned for the Worst

There is a spare parts dealer in Abossey Okai who survived the economic crisis of 2022-2025 while businesses around him collapsed. His secret was not luck. It was not political connections. It was not a secret source of foreign currency.

His secret was a dusty notebook.

Every day, for fifteen years, he recorded three numbers: what came in, what went out, and what was left. He knew his cash flow to the cedi. He knew which parts sold fastest and which gathered dust. He knew his suppliers’ payment terms and his customers’ payment habits. When the cedi lost half its value, he did not panic. He adjusted. He knew exactly how much buffer he had and exactly how long he could survive without sales.

He told me, “The crisis did not surprise me. I did not know when it would come, but I knew it would come. So I prepared for the version of my business that could survive anything.”

This is not a story about extraordinary foresight. It is a story about ordinary discipline. The businesses that survive economic shocks are not necessarily the richest or the best connected. They are the ones that prepared before the shock arrived—not in a panic, but as a daily practice.

This ASJ feature investigates how Accra’s SMEs are preparing for unexpected economic changes. We examine the lessons of the recent crisis, the tools and strategies that build resilience, and the new ecosystem of support—from government programmes to fintech innovations—that is helping small businesses prepare for the next shock. We also provide a practical framework for any SME to assess its vulnerability and build buffers before the next storm hits.

Because the question is not whether another economic shock will come. The question is whether your business will be ready when it does.

The Crisis That Changed Everything: Lessons from 2022-2025

To understand how to prepare for future shocks, we must understand what happened in the last one.

The Shock That Arrived from Multiple Directions

The economic crisis that began in 2022 was not a single event. It was a cascade: the cedi lost more than half its value against the dollar; inflation peaked at 54.1 per cent in December 2022; interest rates soared past 30 per cent; the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) wiped out the savings of many businesses that held government bonds; and global supply chains fractured .

For SMEs, this meant:

• Imported inputs became unaffordable overnight

• Borrowing became prohibitively expensive (interest rates of 30-40 per cent)

• Customers had less money to spend

• Existing debts became harder to service

• Many businesses found themselves operating in what analysts described as a “financial squeeze zone” where profit was “no longer driven by efficiency or demand, it is consumed by the cost of money itself” 

The Survival Gap

The crisis revealed a stark divide. Some businesses survived. Others did not. The difference was not sector or size. It was preparation.

According to the UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), nearly 70 per cent of MSMEs in Ghana do not survive within their first five years, “not for lack of effort or enterprise, but because of financial constraints, stringent lending criteria, and limited access to appropriate financial services” .

But among those that survived the recent crisis, common patterns emerged:

• They had maintained accurate financial records (unlike the majority that operate without formal ledgers or credit history)

• They had built cash reserves before the crisis hit

• They had diversified their customer base and supply chains

• They had avoided over-reliance on expensive debt

• They had the discipline to cut costs quickly when revenue dropped

The editorial observation: The crisis was a stress test. It exposed the fragility of businesses that operated informally, that did not track their finances, that borrowed too much, that depended on a single customer or supplier. The businesses that passed the test were not the luckiest. They were the most disciplined. And discipline is not a gift. It is a choice, made daily, before the crisis arrives.

The New Economic Environment: Better, But Not Safe

Before discussing preparation strategies, we must understand the current environment. Because preparation for the next shock must account for where we are now.

The Macroeconomic Recovery

The headlines are genuinely encouraging. Inflation has fallen from 54.1 per cent to 5.4 per cent as of December 2025 . Treasury bill rates have collapsed, pushing banks toward productive lending . The cedi has shown signs of stability. The Deputy Chief of Staff noted that “early signs of macroeconomic improvement… are helping to reset the business environment after a prolonged period of strain” .

Analysts describe the current phase as “The transition from crisis management to growth activation” . For the first time in years, businesses are beginning to talk about expansion instead of survival.

The Lingering Vulnerabilities

But the recovery is incomplete. And the vulnerabilities remain.

Access to finance remains constrained: Despite falling interest rates, 95 per cent of SMEs struggle to access loans because they cannot provide the collateral demanded by lending institutions . Most SMEs still operate without the financial records that lenders rely on to assess creditworthiness .

Regulatory uncertainty persists: The UK-Ghana Chamber of Commerce has warned about “regulatory inconsistency” in foreign exchange management, noting that “unpredictable currency fluctuation directly compromises the viability of long-term commercial contracts” .

The informal economy is vast: While the macro indicators improve, many SMEs remain outside the formal financial system, invisible to lenders and vulnerable to shocks.

The next shock is coming: It always does. A currency fluctuation. A global commodity price shift. A political transition. A pandemic. The question is not whether, but when.

The editorial observation: The current stability is a gift. It is a window of opportunity to prepare before the next window closes. The SME that uses this time to build reserves, formalise operations, and diversify is the SME that will survive the next shock. The SME that relaxes because inflation fell is the SME that will be caught unprepared again.

The Resilience Toolkit: What Actually Works

Based on the evidence—from businesses that survived the crisis, from financial experts, and from support programmes—here are the strategies that build resilience.

Strategy One: Cash Flow Management (The Non-Negotiable Foundation)

The single most important resilience strategy is also the most boring: knowing your cash flow.

According to the Accra Street Journal’s guide for SMEs, effective cash flow management involves:

• Keeping accurate financial records (daily sales, expenses, inventory, loan repayments)

• Creating cash flow forecasts to predict future financial position

• Controlling expenses by negotiating with suppliers and reducing waste

• Encouraging faster customer payments through mobile money options and clear deadlines

• Maintaining a cash reserve for unexpected expenses 

The lesson from the spare parts dealer: He knew his numbers every day. He did not wait for an accountant at year-end. He did not guess. He knew.

The practical step: If you do nothing else, start a simple cash flow log. A notebook. A spreadsheet. A mobile app. Record what comes in and what goes out. Do it every day. After one month, you will know more about your business than 90 per cent of your competitors.

Strategy Two: Building a Cash Reserve (The Buffer That Saves You)

Financial advisors consistently emphasise the importance of a cash reserve or emergency fund to handle unexpected expenses such as equipment repairs, inventory shortages, or temporary drops in sales .

How much is enough? Experts recommend setting aside a portion of profits regularly to build a financial cushion. The target: enough to cover at least three months of operating expenses.

The psychological benefit: A cash reserve does not just protect your business. It protects your decision-making. The business owner with a reserve can negotiate from strength, wait for better prices, and survive slow periods without panic-selling or taking desperate loans.

The practical step: Set up a separate bank account or mobile money wallet for your reserve. Automate a small transfer every week—even GH¢20. Do not touch it except for genuine emergencies.

Strategy Three: Formalising Financial Records (The Key to Credit Access)

The majority of SMEs in Ghana operate without formal financial records. This makes them invisible to lenders and vulnerable to shocks .

The UNCDF, in partnership with financial institutions and fintech companies, is working to change this. Their programme supports digital lending models that use non-traditional data—including mobile money transaction patterns—to assess credit risk .

The insight: You do not need to be large to be bankable. You need to be trackable. A business that can demonstrate consistent cash flow through mobile money records, even without formal financial statements, is increasingly able to access credit.

The practical step: Separate personal and business finances. Use a dedicated mobile money wallet for business transactions. Keep records—even simple ones. The data you generate is the key to future credit.

Strategy Four: Inventory Discipline (Cash Is Not Stock)

For many SMEs, inventory represents a significant portion of business capital. Buying too much stock ties up cash that could be used for other needs .

The lesson from the crisis: Businesses that were overstocked when demand collapsed were trapped. Their cash was in goods that would not sell. Businesses with lean inventory could adjust, pivot, and survive.

The practical step: Monitor inventory levels closely. Avoid overstocking. Focus on fast-selling items. Use a “just-in-time” approach where feasible—order smaller quantities more frequently rather than large batches that sit on shelves.

Strategy Five: Borrowing Discipline (Debt Is a Tool, Not a Crutch)

Access to credit can help businesses grow, but excessive borrowing creates financial strain .

The lesson from the crisis: When interest rates soared to 30-40 per cent, businesses with high debt loads were crushed. Businesses that had borrowed conservatively—or not at all—could weather the storm.

The practical step: Before taking a loan, model the worst case. What happens if sales drop by 30 per cent? What happens if interest rates rise? Can you still service the debt? If the answer is no, the loan is too risky.

Strategy Six: Diversification (Don’t Put Everything in One Basket)

The businesses that survived the crisis often had diversified customer bases, diversified suppliers, and diversified revenue streams.

The lesson: A single customer that accounts for 50 per cent of revenue is a vulnerability. A single supplier in a volatile market is a vulnerability. A single product category is a vulnerability.

The practical step: Map your concentrations. Which customers are essential? Which suppliers are irreplaceable? Which products drive most of your revenue? For each, develop a backup plan. Not because you distrust them. Because you trust the unexpected.

Strategy Seven: Continuous Learning and Digital Adoption

The government and private sector have launched multiple programmes to build SME capacity.

The MTN SME Accelerate programme, now in its third edition, provides training in digital tools, financial management, and business mentorship through regional clinics in Accra, Kumasi, Tamale, and Takoradi . Angela Mensah-Poku, Chief Enterprise Officer of MTN Ghana, described the company’s evolution from “connectivity partner” to “catalyst for growth” .

The Ghana Enterprises Agency (GEA) is implementing the SME Innovation and Inclusion Programme – Digitalize for Jobs (D4J) Project, which builds capacity for SMEs in digitalisation, helping them manage operations, respond to clients, and organise business information to access loans .

The practical step: Apply to these programmes. They are free or low-cost. They are designed for businesses like yours. The excuse “I don’t have time” is not valid. The question is whether you can afford not to learn.

The Support Ecosystem: Programmes and Partners

No SME builds resilience alone. An ecosystem of support is emerging.

Government Programmes

The 24-Hour Economy and Accelerated Export Authority is formalising a partnership with the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry to support SME financing. The Authority is discussing a credit insurance guarantee scheme with the Bank of Ghana and the National Insurance Commission to reduce reliance on physical collateral. Augustus Goosie Tanoh, Presidential Advisor, noted that “ninety-five per cent of SMEs struggle to access loans because they cannot provide the collateral demanded by lending institutions” .

The Ghana Economic Transformation Project (GETP) , supported by the World Bank, has introduced targeted grant programmes including the COVID-19 Response Grant, Women MSME Programme, PWD Enterprise Support Programme, and Youth in MSME Programme .

The Ghana Enterprises Agency (GEA) , through its network of 225 District Business Advisory Centres, provides business development services, facilitates access to credit and markets, and supports capacity building, digitalisation, and formalisation of the MSME sector .

Private Sector Programmes

MTN Ghana’s SME Accelerate programme is a year-long initiative offering training, digital tools, financial management support, and curated networking opportunities. The programme includes targeted support for women entrepreneurs, youth-led businesses, family-owned enterprises, and businesses run by persons with disabilities .

The UK-Ghana Chamber of Commerce provides advocacy and advisory services, including position papers on foreign exchange management and regulatory consistency .

International Partners

The UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) is supporting digital lending models through a four-year programme providing investment grants and technical assistance to financial institutions and fintech companies. The programme aims to mobilise $14.2 million in additional market finance .

The World Bank supports the Ghana Economic Transformation Project, which includes grant programmes for SMEs .

The German Cooperation’s ‘Invest for Jobs’ programme partners with GEA on the Digitalize for Jobs Project, focusing on PWD-owned and -led SMEs .

The editorial observation: The support exists. The programmes are running. The question is whether SMEs will use them. Many business owners are unaware of these resources. Others assume they are not eligible. Most do not apply because the application process seems daunting. These are barriers of perception, not reality. The SME that navigates them gains an advantage over competitors who do not.

A Resilience Checklist for Accra SMEs

Use this checklist to assess your business’s preparedness for unexpected economic changes.

Financial Foundations:

• Do you track daily cash flow (income and expenses)?

• Do you have a cash flow forecast for the next 3 months?

• Do you maintain a cash reserve (minimum 3 months of operating expenses)?

• Are your personal and business finances separated?

• Do you have accurate financial records that a lender could review?

Debt and Credit:

• Have you modelled the impact of a 30 per cent interest rate increase on your existing debt?

• Do you have a repayment plan for all existing loans?

• Have you explored alternative financing (grants, programmes) before taking bank loans?

• Is your mobile money transaction history organised and accessible?

Inventory and Operations:

• Do you monitor inventory turnover (how fast stock sells)?

• Have you identified slow-moving items that tie up cash?

• Do you have backup suppliers for critical inputs?

• Can you reduce your inventory by 30 per cent without disrupting operations?

Customers and Revenue:

• Does any single customer account for more than 20 per cent of revenue? (If yes, that is a vulnerability.)

• Do you have a plan to reach customers if your primary channel is disrupted?

• Have you diversified your product or service offerings?

• Do you encourage faster customer payments (mobile money, discounts for early payment)?

Learning and Adaptation:

• Have you applied to any SME support programmes (MTN SME Accelerate, GEA, GETP grants) in the last 12 months?

• Have you attended any business training or workshop in the last 12 months?

• Do you use any digital tools for accounting, inventory, or customer management?

• Do you have a network of other SME owners to share information and advice?

The editorial observation: This checklist is not a luxury. It is a survival tool. The business that answers “no” to more than three questions is vulnerable. The business that answers “no” to more than five is at serious risk. Not because it is a bad business, but because it has not prepared for the shock that is coming. And the shock is always coming.

The Road Ahead: From Survival to Growth

The economic environment is shifting. For the first time in years, businesses are beginning to talk about expansion instead of survival .

Falling Treasury bill rates mean banks are being pushed toward productive lending. Industries are becoming attractive again. Private sector expansion is regaining momentum . Sectors expected to benefit include manufacturing, agro-processing, digital commerce, and logistics.

But the transition from survival to growth requires a different mindset. Survival is about cutting costs, conserving cash, and waiting out the storm. Growth is about investing, hiring, and expanding. The businesses that succeed will be those that can shift between these modes as conditions change.

The resilience paradox: The most resilient businesses are not those that are always in survival mode. They are those that can survive and grow. They have the discipline to save during good times and the courage to invest when opportunities arise. They do not panic in a crisis, but they do not relax in a recovery.

The practical implication: Use the current stability to build your reserves and formalise your operations. But also use it to invest in the capabilities—new products, new customers, new technology—that will enable you to grow. The next crisis will come. But if you have built a stronger business, you will not just survive it. You may even gain market share while weaker competitors collapse.

FAQ Section: SME Owners’ Top Questions Answered

1. How can my small business prepare for unexpected economic changes like currency fluctuations or inflation?

The most effective preparations are: (1) maintain accurate daily cash flow records so you know your financial position at all times, (2) build a cash reserve of at least three months of operating expenses, (3) avoid over-reliance on expensive debt, (4) diversify customers and suppliers to reduce concentration risk, and (5) use digital tools to formalise your financial data, which improves access to credit when you need it .

2. What government programmes are available to help SMEs build resilience?

Key programmes include: the Ghana Economic Transformation Project (GETP) grants (COVID-19 Response Grant, Women MSME Programme, PWD Enterprise Support, Youth in MSME Programme); the Ghana Enterprises Agency (GEA) business development services through 225 District Business Advisory Centres; and the proposed 24-Hour Economy Authority credit insurance guarantee scheme to reduce collateral requirements for SME loans .

3. How can I access credit if my business does not have traditional financial records?

New digital lending models use non-traditional data—including mobile money transaction patterns—to assess credit risk. The UNCDF is supporting partnerships between financial institutions and fintech companies to enable lending based on digital business data. Start by separating personal and business finances, using a dedicated mobile money wallet, and keeping consistent records of all transactions .

4. What is the MTN SME Accelerate programme and how can I join?

The MTN SME Accelerate programme is a year-long initiative providing training in digital tools, financial management, and business mentorship. It includes regional clinics in Accra, Kumasi, Tamale, and Takoradi, plus targeted support for women entrepreneurs, youth-led businesses, family-owned enterprises, and businesses run by persons with disabilities. Applications are announced through MTN Ghana’s channels .

5. How much cash reserve should my business have?

Experts recommend at least three months of operating expenses. This buffer allows you to survive temporary drops in sales, cover unexpected repairs, and negotiate from strength rather than desperation. Start small—set aside a portion of profits regularly into a separate account or mobile money wallet .

6. Is the economy stable enough to think about expansion now?

Macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly—inflation fell to 5.4 per cent in December 2025, Treasury bill rates have collapsed, and the cedi has shown stability. Analysts describe a “transition from crisis management to growth activation.” However, vulnerabilities remain, and another shock is inevitable. The prudent approach: build resilience (cash reserves, formal records, diversified revenue) while selectively investing in growth opportunities .

7. What are the biggest mistakes SMEs make when preparing for economic shocks?

The biggest mistakes are: (1) waiting until the shock arrives to prepare (by then it is too late), (2) failing to track cash flow daily, (3) over-borrowing when credit is available, (4) overstocking inventory that ties up cash, (5) relying on a single customer or supplier, and (6) ignoring free support programmes because the application process seems daunting .

8. How does the 24-Hour Economy Authority help SMEs?

The Authority is developing a credit insurance guarantee scheme with the Bank of Ghana and National Insurance Commission to reduce reliance on physical collateral. It is also creating an Enterprise Support Organisation framework to enhance credit readiness among SMEs, providing governance, financial management, market preparation, and post-credit monitoring .

9. What digital tools can help my business manage cash flow and prepare for shocks?

Simple tools include: spreadsheets for cash flow tracking (free), mobile money merchant accounts for faster payments, WhatsApp Business for customer communication, and basic accounting apps for record-keeping. The GEA’s Digitalize for Jobs programme provides access to digital solutions and capacity building for SMEs .

10. How do I know if my business is resilient enough to survive the next shock?

Use the resilience checklist in this article. Key indicators: you track daily cash flow, have three months of operating expenses in reserve, have separated personal and business finances, maintain accurate records, have diversified customers and suppliers, and have applied to at least one SME support programme in the last 12 months. If you can answer “yes” to most of these, you are better prepared than 80 per cent of SMEs .

Conclusion: The Business That Prepares Today Survives Tomorrow

Let me return to the spare parts dealer in Abossey Okai.

He did not predict the crisis. He did not know when the cedi would fall or inflation would spike. But he knew—with the certainty of someone who had been in business for fifteen years—that unexpected things happen. Suppliers fail. Currencies move. Customers disappear.

So he prepared. Not in a panic, not when the news was bad. He prepared daily, through the boring discipline of recording numbers, tracking cash, and keeping a buffer.

When the crisis came, his competitors panicked. They borrowed at punishing rates. They discounted desperately. They closed their shops. He adjusted his prices, managed his inventory, and kept serving his customers. He did not get rich during the crisis. But he survived. And when the economy stabilised, he was still there—ready to serve the customers who had nowhere else to go.

That is resilience. Not a plan you dust off when the storm hits. A daily practice that makes the storm survivable.

The economic environment in Ghana is improving. But the next shock will come. It always does. The question is not whether your business will face unexpected challenges. The question is whether, when they arrive, you will have prepared.

Start today. Track your cash. Build your reserve. Formalise your records. Diversify your revenue. Learn from the programmes that exist to help you.

The business that prepares today is the business that survives tomorrow.

Do not wait for the next crisis to remind you why preparation matters. The time to build resilience is now, while the sun is still shining, while the economy is stable, while you still have the luxury of planning.

Because when the storm comes—and it will come—it will be too late to build the ark.

Source: Accra Street Journal 

Last Updated on May 30, 2026 by Samuel Kwame Boadu

Samuel Kwame Boadu

Samuel Kwame Boadu is a Ghanaian media entrepreneur and storyteller with a passion for amplifying urban voices and uncovering everyday truths. He is the Editor-in-Chief and Founder of Accra Street Journal, a dynamic digital platform dedicated to capturing the pulse of Ghana’s capital—its people, culture, challenges, business, sports and innovations.

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