Inflation & Interest Rates: Ghana’s Inflation Drops to 3.2%, Cedi Stable at GH¢11.09/$ as IMF Programme Nears Exit

Accra — Ghana’s economic recovery continues to gain momentum, with annual headline inflation dropping to 3.2 per cent in March 2026, the Bank of Ghana aggressively lowering the policy rate to 18.0 per cent, and the cedi maintaining relative stability around GH¢11.09 per US dollar.

The dramatic turnaround from the crisis years of 2022–2023, when inflation peaked above 50 per cent and the cedi traded at nearly GH¢16.00 per dollar, reflects the success of the IMF-supported economic reform programme. With the third review successfully completed and key fiscal targets being met, authorities have signaled that the programme could conclude in the coming months.

Here is your complete Accra Street Journal roundup of Ghana’s inflation, interest rates, currency exchange, fuel prices, and IMF programme status.

Inflation Rate

Headline Inflation Drops to 3.2% in March 2026

Ghana’s annual headline inflation dropped to 3.2 per cent in March 2026 , down from 3.3 per cent in February, according to the Ghana Statistical Service.

The March figure marks a significant milestone in Ghana’s economic recovery. It represents a dramatic decline from the peak of the crisis, when inflation surged above 50 per cent in late 2022, and a sharp improvement from the 22.1 per cent recorded in October 2024.

The sustained downward trajectory reflects the combined effect of:

• Tight monetary policy: The Bank of Ghana’s aggressive rate hikes in 2023–2024 anchored inflation expectations.

• Cedi stability: The currency’s rebound reduced imported inflation pressures.

• Improved food supply: Better agricultural output and stabilised food prices.

• Base effects: The comparison period now includes the high inflation months of early 2025.

Implications for Households and Businesses

For households, lower inflation means the cedi in their pocket goes further than it did a year ago. Real incomes are rising, and purchasing power is being restored after years of erosion.

For businesses, lower inflation reduces uncertainty, making it easier to plan investment, set prices, and negotiate contracts. The stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment has been a key factor in the GSE’s historic rally.

Monetary Policy Rate

BoG Lowers Policy Rate to 18.0%

The Bank of Ghana has aggressively lowered the policy rate as inflation eased, bringing the benchmark rate down to 18.0 per cent as of late 2025 or early 2026.

The decline is sharp compared to the 27.0 per cent policy rate maintained through much of 2024. The 900 basis point reduction reflects the central bank’s confidence that inflation is under control and that monetary policy can now support growth.

Monetary Policy Committee Stance

The Monetary Policy Committee has signaled that further rate cuts may be possible if inflation continues to trend downward. However, the committee remains vigilant about external risks, including global oil price volatility and potential food supply shocks.

The current policy rate of 18.0 per cent is still positive in real terms, given that inflation is at 3.2 per cent. This provides a buffer against any future inflationary pressures.

Commercial Lending Rates

Average Bank Lending Rates Follow Downward Trend

Average bank lending rates have followed the downward trend in the policy rate, providing much-needed relief for businesses compared to the peak of the crisis.

At the height of the economic turmoil in late 2024, commercial lending rates averaged 30.45 per cent , making credit prohibitively expensive for most businesses. The current average lending rate is significantly lower, though exact figures vary by bank and borrower risk profile.

Impact on Businesses

For businesses, lower borrowing costs reduce interest expenses, improve profit margins, and make new investment projects more viable. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which are particularly sensitive to interest rates, have been among the beneficiaries of the easing cycle.

However, banks remain cautious about lending due to lingering asset quality concerns from the crisis period. The transmission of policy rate cuts to lending rates has not been uniform across all borrower segments.

Currency Exchange (GHS to USD)

Cedi Rebounds and Stabilises

The Ghana cedi has seen a notable rebound and relative stability this year, recovering from the depths of the 2024 currency crisis.

Current interbank rate: The cedi is selling at approximately GH¢11.09 per US dollar , according to the Bank of Ghana interbank rates.

Historical context: This represents a strong recovery from October 2024, when the cedi was trading at nearly GH¢16.00 per dollar .

Drivers of Cedi Stability

Several factors have contributed to the cedi’s rebound:

• IMF programme: Policy credibility and access to foreign exchange.

• Gold purchase programme: The Bank of Ghana’s domestic gold purchases have bolstered reserves.

• Remittances: $7.8 billion in remittance inflows in 2025 provided steady dollar supply.

• Improved fiscal position: Reduced government borrowing needs.

• Tighter monetary policy: Higher interest rates attract foreign portfolio investment.

Implications

For importers, a stronger cedi reduces the cost of imported goods, which should feed through to lower consumer prices. For exporters, the cedi’s strength reduces the cedi value of dollar earnings, but the stability is welcomed.

For the broader economy, cedi stability reduces inflation expectations, supports investment, and makes long-term planning more feasible.

Fuel & Energy Prices

Fuel Prices Stabilise on Stronger Cedi

Fuel prices have stabilised or even decreased in some windows due to the stronger cedi and favourable global oil trends, providing relief to consumers and businesses.

Petrol (Super): Currently selling between GH¢13.31 and GH¢14.64 per litre at major pumps like GOIL.

Diesel: Currently ranging between GH¢13.57 and GH¢15.45 per litre .

Historical peak: For comparison, prices were nearing GH¢15.00 per litre in October 2024 during the height of the currency depreciation.

Drivers of Fuel Price Stability

The stabilisation of fuel prices reflects two key factors:

• Stronger cedi: The currency’s appreciation reduces the cedi cost of imported refined products.

• Global oil trends: While crude prices have been volatile, the pass-through to local prices has been moderated by the cedi.

Outlook for Fuel Prices

The government had previously absorbed GH¢2.00 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol to cushion consumers, though these interventions were temporary. The current price ranges reflect the market-driven pricing mechanism.

Risks to the outlook include further spikes in global crude prices and any renewed depreciation of the cedi.

IMF Programme Status

Third Review Successfully Completed

Ghana successfully completed the third review of its US$3 billion loan programme in late 2024, marking a significant milestone in the country’s economic recovery.

The successful review unlocked additional disbursements and signaled the IMF’s confidence in Ghana’s reform efforts. Key performance criteria, including fiscal targets, debt restructuring progress, and reserve accumulation, were met.

Exit Strategy: Programme Could Conclude in Coming Months

Authorities have signaled that the programme could conclude in the coming months as key fiscal targets are met and the economy stabilises.

The potential early exit reflects:

• Fiscal consolidation: The government has met its primary surplus targets.

• Debt restructuring: Bilateral debt agreements have been signed with multiple creditors.

• Inflation control: The central bank has brought inflation back to target levels.

• Reserve rebuild: Foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt to adequate levels.

Growth Outlook: IMF Raises Forecast to Nearly 5% for 2026

The IMF recently raised Ghana’s growth forecast, with the economy expected to grow by nearly 5 per cent in 2026 . The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected performance across multiple sectors, including agriculture, services, and the rebound in investor confidence.

The growth forecast aligns with the GSE’s historic rally, as investors price in a stronger economic outlook.

Summary Table: Key Economic Indicators

Outlook From ASJ

The economic indicators point to a sustained recovery, but risks remain.

Positive Factors

• Inflation under control: At 3.2 per cent, inflation is within the central bank’s target band.

• Cedi stability: The currency has held its ground despite global volatility.

• Policy credibility: The IMF programme has restored confidence.

• Growth momentum: The economy is expanding at nearly 5 per cent.

Risks to Monitor

• Global oil prices: A spike could reverse fuel price gains and pressure the cedi.

• Election uncertainties: The upcoming election could affect policy continuity.

• External shocks: Global economic slowdown or financial turmoil could affect Ghana.

• Fiscal pressures: Despite consolidation, revenue mobilisation remains a challenge.

For households, businesses, and investors, the message is clear: Ghana’s economy has turned a corner, but vigilance is required to sustain the gains.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is Ghana’s current inflation rate?

Ghana’s annual headline inflation dropped to 3.2 per cent in March 2026, down from 3.3 per cent in February. This represents a dramatic decline from the 22.1 per cent recorded in October 2024 and the peak of over 50 per cent in late 2022.

2. What is the Bank of Ghana’s current monetary policy rate?

The Bank of Ghana has lowered the policy rate to 18.0 per cent as of late 2025 or early 2026, a sharp decline from the 27.0 per cent maintained through much of 2024. The 900 basis point reduction reflects confidence that inflation is under control.

3. How is the Ghana cedi performing against the US dollar?

The cedi is currently trading at approximately GH¢11.09 per US dollar at the interbank rate. This represents a strong recovery from October 2024, when the cedi was trading at nearly GH¢16.00 per dollar.

4. What are current fuel prices in Ghana?

Petrol (Super) is selling between GH¢13.31 and GH¢14.64 per litre at major pumps like GOIL, while diesel ranges between GH¢13.57 and GH¢15.45 per litre. Prices have stabilised due to the stronger cedi.

5. What is the status of Ghana’s IMF programme?

Ghana successfully completed the third review of its US$3 billion loan programme in late 2024. Authorities have signaled that the programme could conclude in the coming months as key fiscal targets are met.

6. What is Ghana’s economic growth forecast for 2026?

The IMF recently raised Ghana’s growth forecast, with the economy expected to grow by nearly 5 per cent in 2026. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected performance across multiple sectors.