As Nigeria’s opposition weighs its path to 2027, one question towers above all others: will Alhaji Atiku Abubakar put country before ambition, or will he hand President Bola Ahmed Tinubu a second term on a platter?
I want to add my voice to the multiplicity of calls to former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, to be a statesman.
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I am not sure what the motivation for his interest in the presidency is, knowing that a Northerner completed an eight-year term before it was rotated to the South. Whatever it is, I seriously appeal that he heeds the voice of reason — for equity and fairness.
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During interviews granted by the three other top contending candidates — Donald Duke, Adewole Adebayo and Peter Obi — they were unanimous in their conviction that only a coalition of the opposition parties can garner enough force against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 election. A fragmented opposition substantially enhances the chances for Tinubu’s re-election.
Anything short of a coalition exposes the contest to a scenario where the electoral commission reproduces an edited version of the 2023 election results — which it could then rationalise by stating that the 2027 results indicate the electorate continue to maintain their candidates’ preferences as they did in 2023.
The Arithmetic of a Coalition
If Alhaji Atiku would take the path of honour and put his weight behind a Peter Obi candidature, the election results sharing ratio should look something like this: 8.7 million votes of Tinubu against the aggregation of 6.9m (Atiku), 6.1m (Peter Obi), 1.5m (Kwankwaso) — which gives a total of 14.5 million. This is without even considering the tally from Donald Duke, Adewole Adebayo, Rotimi Amaechi and Seyi Makinde.
That would be one incontrovertible and assured way to win a clear-cut victory against the incumbent. It is one way to not resort to judicial intervention, which, as we should expect, would have a predetermined outcome. The winning margin should be so explicitly clear-cut that any chances of manipulation are erased. A splintered opposition vote would create vulnerabilities — grey areas for the already questionable umpire and their judicial accomplices to exploit for the benefit of their principal.
A coalition is the APC and its cohorts’ greatest nightmare.
The Question of Age and Cognitive Decline
Alhaji Atiku should know that cognitive decline, which inevitably fogs reasoning faculty, sets in at a certain point in our lives. It is a normal part of ageing to which we are all susceptible. It has been shown with many leaders over 80 years of age. Muhammadu Buhari exhibited it. It is evident in Bola Tinubu, despite all pretenses to the contrary. We see it in Donald Trump. It was glaring with Joe Biden, and showing all over Paul Biya of Cameroun.
It is therefore in Alhaji Atiku’s best interest to remain a dignified statesman, and not risk becoming an object of ridicule, all in a bid to satisfy some life-long ambition.
At 79 years, he is 14 years older than the oldest of the other top contenders — Prince Adewole Adebayo is 54, Rotimi Amaechi is 61, Donald Duke is 64, Peter Obi is 65, Seyi Makinde is 58. Nigeria’s overall median population age is approximately 17.9 to 18.1 years old. Over 60% of the total population fall under the age of 25 to 30.
There is no gainsaying the fact that the country is witnessing an unprecedented level of moral and social decadence among the youth: advanced fee fraud (419 or yahoo-yahoo), prostitution (disingenuously code-named hook-up), drug trafficking and consumption, and cultism — all of which portend a bleak future for the upcoming generations.
An 80-year-old president would hardly possess the mental alertness or physical fitness required to respond to the realities of this disturbing trend and to stem the tide. We are all, very sadly, witnesses to the free-fall in our society’s moral fabric and total degeneracy — the new low to which that demography has sunk over the last 12 years of the APC-led octogenarian administrations.
The Suspicion of a Secret Pact
Atiku’s insistence to contest has had people wondering if there exists a secret pact between him and Tinubu — an agreement under which Atiku should help fragment and destabilise the ranks of the opposition, especially of Peter Obi, for the benefit of Tinubu.
When you realise that Atiku has, in the past, been quoted to have made statements such as “Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and I came a long way from the SDP, PDM and all of that” — which was the reason he decided to leave Lagos for Tinubu when the PDP took over all of the Southwest states — you start to ponder if there is veracity to that suspicion.
Is the calculation such that, by Atiku splitting the votes that should have accrued to Peter Obi, he clears the path for Tinubu’s re-election in 2027? Is it also part of the arrangement that when the rotation reverts back to the North, Atiku would then either get the ticket or assign it to a trusted proxy, who is then guaranteed Southwest support?
While this may remain within the realms of conspiracy, we must all be baffled as to the justification for him repeatedly throwing his hat in the ring — first in 2023, during which he succeeded in scuttling the chances of Peter Obi, and again for the forthcoming 2027 election — this, despite knowing, and perhaps even being one of the architects of, the “gentleman’s agreement” of a power rotation between North and South.
The ‘Born to Rule’ Perception
Alhaji Atiku would do well to realise that he may be unwittingly reinforcing the belief and validating the assertion that a part of the country, a certain ethnic group, exhibits a “born to rule” attitude — even an unwholesome display of egocentric entitlement.
The Igbos have supported the presidential aspirations of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in his previous attempts at the presidency more than once in the past. It would not be out of place to reciprocate the gesture.
Besides, there comes a time when it is more honourable to be a kingmaker than to aim for the crown itself. He should learn from Tinubu’s pitfalls, heed voices of reason, and not tread the same mine-laced, treacherous path of “Emilokan” that has become Tinubu’s Achilles heel.
A Demystification, Not a Vindication
Maybe it was a good thing that Tinubu wriggled himself into the presidency in 2023 — otherwise, his supporters would have been saying, “if only he had the chance to rule Nigeria, even if for only one term of four years, he would have totally transformed Nigeria, as he did in Lagos.” We have all seen the “national transformation.”
Even Buhari’s cult-like supporters would have been telling us how he would have turned Nigeria into an eldorado if he had been allowed to come back to rule — that he would have sanitised Nigeria “like he and Tunde Idiagbon did between 1983 and 1985.
The last 12 years basically demystified these two and exposed their hollow-nakedness.
The Southern Vote Question
Alhaji Atiku would most certainly not get the southern votes. He is not gaining any traction and hardly features in any conversation when people of the South discuss preferred candidates for the 2027 election.
As unkind as this may sound, it is best to properly situate the current sentiment on the streets and bring him to current reality. No right-thinking person from the South — or the Middle Belt for that matter — would give their votes to Atiku or the North. Not at this time, with just four years into an eight-year expected tenure for a Southern presidency. Not especially after what the South and the Middle Belt have endured over the last 12 years from marauding elements who consider Atiku their kinsman.
I am not sure what members of his inner caucus, especially those from the South — Dele Momodu, Dino Melaye, Rotimi Amaechi, Pedro Obaseki, Rauf Aregbesola and others — are feeding him. What intelligence information and confidence-building feedback are they providing?
Putting it more succinctly, without equivocation: in the Nigeria of today, no Southerner would vote to see power return to the North with the South having served only four of an eight-year, two-term eligibility. If his guys are telling him anything otherwise, let Waziri Adamawa watch the weight of his wallet.
Unanswered Questions
I equally doubt if his decision to contest was subjected to rigorous analysis and critique by his Working Group.
Did they think through how his emergence might convolute the existing power rotation structure? Did they resolve the issues of how the rotation arrangement would subsequently run if, fortuitously, Atiku was even to be voted in? Is the calculation that he would do a single term of four years and relinquish the presidency to the South? Does that mean the North and South would, from that point onward (2031), commence a one-term rotation of four years? Is the plan that he would do four years and seek re-election for another four to make it eight years?
How do they reconcile that Buhari — a Northerner — was president for eight years, a Southerner (Tinubu) took it and ran it for only four years, and they expect it to revert back to the North for another four or eight years?
Even if the plan is to henceforth make it a four-year single term per region, should the South not be allowed to complete its own eight years, and after that, subject any new four-year rotation arrangement to a debate with a view to obtaining an all-parties consensus?
A Distinguished Career — Don’t Blow It
By all standards and within the context of Nigeria, Africa, or perhaps even globally, Alhaji Atiku has had an accomplished, unblemished and distinguished professional and political career, with citations appropriately describing him as illustrious. He should look back and consider the depth from which he has had to rise. I am sure he could never have imagined the height to which the abundance of grace has brought him.
He should not blow it. As Chinua Achebe famously said in Things Fall Apart: “Those whose palm-kernels were cracked for them by a benevolent spirit should not forget to be humble.”
He would do well to spend the remainder of his days doting over his grandchildren. As a polygamous man blessed with many children, he should by now be putting his house in order even “as the sun gradually sets.
A Warning and a Reckoning
Against all wise counsels, if Alhaji Atiku Abubakar insists on contesting the forthcoming 2027 presidential election, let it be known that he would have greatly increased the chances of a Tinubu victory.
When that happens and his team are in their situation room doing a post-mortem, they should remember that this writer and many others called their attention to that eventuality.
The North, and indeed all of the long-suffering people of Nigeria under the APC misrule, should look no further than the obstinacy of Alhaji Atiku. He should accept the blame for allowing the afflictions of Nigerians to “arise a second time.”
Mr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former political adviser to President Tinubu and now the Chairman of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), recently said on his interview with Symfoni TV that: “The North will be finished if Tinubu wins in 2027.” That statement should not be taken figuratively.
A Final Word on Rotation
In closing, after the 2027 presidential election which terminates in 2031, the next election cycle when the South is expected to field candidates — if the current rotation arrangement is sustained — would be 2039.
If, for reasons of any past transgressions, the Igbos are deemed not qualified to aspire to the leadership of the country, why not just let them go? For it would appear that the North-South power sharing rotation has, in fact, become a euphemism for a North-West and South-West power sharing arrangement.
Peter Omonua ([email protected]) writes from Lagos. The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of this publication.
Last Updated on October 4, 2026 by Samuel Kwame Boadu
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Samuel Kwame Boadu is a Ghanaian media entrepreneur and storyteller with a passion for amplifying urban voices and uncovering everyday truths. He is the Editor-in-Chief and Founder of Accra Street Journal, a dynamic digital platform dedicated to capturing the pulse of Ghana’s capital—its people, culture, challenges, business, sports and innovations.
