Ghana’s Credit Rating History: Accra Street Journal (ASJ) Intelligence Brief

From B+ in 2007 to selective default in 2022 — a two-decade journey through upgrades, downgrades, and recovery

Executive Introduction

Ghana has been rated by major credit rating agencies—Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P—continuously since the early 2000s, with its maiden international bond issuance in 2007 carrying a B+ rating from Fitch . Over nearly two decades, the country has experienced the full spectrum of credit assessments: stable improvements, sharp downgrades during crisis periods, a selective default during the 2022 debt restructuring, and a gradual but sustained recovery since 2025.

This ASJ report traces Ghana’s credit rating history from 2003 to the present, structured around four distinct phases:

1. The pre-crisis stability period (2003–2013) — Ghana maintained ratings in the B range, supported by democratic governance, economic growth, and the discovery of commercial oil .

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2. The post-debut bond period and early warning signs (2013–2019) — Following the 2007 Eurobond debut, Ghana’s rating faced mounting pressures from fiscal imbalances, energy sector debt, and currency volatility, leading to multiple downgrades .

3. The COVID-19 and pre-default crisis (2020–2022) — The pandemic, tightening global financial conditions, and unsustainable debt levels triggered a cascade of downgrades culminating in S&P declaring Ghana in Selective Default (SD) in December 2022 after the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) .

4. The recovery period (2024–2026) — From the depths of default, Ghana has staged a remarkable turnaround. Moody’s upgraded its rating from Ca to Caa1 with a Positive Outlook (Oct 2025) ; S&P upgraded from CCC+ to B- with a Stable Outlook (Nov 2025) ; and Fitch upgraded from B- to B with a Positive Outlook (May 2026) .

The evidence suggests that Ghana’s credit rating history is not merely a passive record of external assessments—it is a reflection of the country’s policy choices, economic management, and susceptibility to global shocks. The 2022 collapse and the subsequent recovery offer critical lessons for policymakers, investors, and citizens about the relationship between domestic governance and international creditworthiness.

Note: This ASJ report focuses primarily on long-term foreign currency ratings, which are the most relevant for assessing a country’s ability to service external debt and accessing international capital markets.

Part 1: 2003–2013 — The Pre-Crisis Stability Period

The Debut Eurobond (2007)

Ghana issued its maiden bond of US$750 million on the international capital market in 2007, with Fitch rating the issuance B+ . This marked the country’s formal entry into the global sovereign bond market and established a benchmark for future borrowing.

The context for the B+ rating:

• Democratic governance and political stability

• Strong GDP growth driven by cocoa, gold, and emerging services sectors

• The discovery of commercial oil (Jubilee field, 2007) created expectations of future revenue windfalls

• The redenomination of the cedi (July 2007) was intended to simplify transactions and restore confidence

Rating Movements (2003–2011)

According to available data from S&P and Moody’s, Ghana’s ratings during this period remained within the B range, reflecting stable creditworthiness with moderate risk :

Key Characteristics of the Period

During this phase, Ghana was viewed by rating agencies as a stable frontier economy with manageable debt levels, improving revenue prospects from oil, and a track record of democratic transitions. The ratings were solidly in the B category—speculative grade, but with a stable outlook indicating low probability of near-term deterioration.

Academic research from Tufts University notes that during this period, “the cedi maintained relative stability, supported by economic growth and sound government policies” . The early 2000s saw the currency perform predictably, with gradual depreciation rather than the sharp collapses that would characterise later periods .

Part 2: 2013–2019 — The Post-Debut Bond Period and Early Warning Signs

The period following Ghana’s integration into international capital markets exposed the structural vulnerabilities of the economy. Fiscal imbalances, energy sector debt, currency volatility, and commodity price shocks began to weigh on credit ratings.

The Downturn Begins (2013–2014)

Multiple agencies downgraded Ghana in late 2013 and 2014 as fiscal pressures mounted:

The downgrades were driven by:

• Rapid accumulation of public debt following the 2007 Eurobond issuance and subsequent borrowing

• Energy sector arrears and the financial distress of the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG)

• Cedi depreciation pressure as fiscal deficits widened

• Declining investor confidence following disputed election results and policy uncertainty

Stability and Recovery Attempts (2015–2019)

Following the 2014 downgrades, Ghana entered a period of relative rating stability, though at lower levels than the pre-2013 peak:

The upgrades in 2017–2018 reflected improved fiscal management, progress under an IMF programme, and stabilising debt dynamics. Ghana’s rating reached B+ from S&P in September 2018—the highest level since the 2007 debut bond .

However, underlying vulnerabilities—high energy sector costs, contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises, and exposure to commodity price volatility—remained unaddressed. These would resurface with devastating effect during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Part 3: 2020–2022 — The COVID-19 Crisis and Pre-Default Downgrades

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a rapid deterioration in Ghana’s fiscal position as revenues collapsed and emergency spending increased. Global financial conditions tightened, and investors began to question Ghana’s ability to service its growing debt burden.

The Initial Downgrades (2020)

By September 2020, S&P had downgraded Ghana to CCC+, signalling that default was a real possibility . The rating reflected Ghana’s worsening debt trajectory, depleted reserves, and limited access to international markets.

The Final Descent into Default (2021–2022)

S&P’s Selective Default (SD) rating in December 2022 followed the government’s announcement of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), which constituted a distressed debt restructuring. This marked the lowest point in Ghana’s credit rating history, as the country was formally classified as being in default on certain obligations.

By the end of 2022:

• Moody’s rated Ghana at Ca (highly speculative, very high credit risk)

• Fitch rated Ghana at CC (extremely speculative, default imminent)

• S&P rated Ghana at SD (Selective Default)

The academic literature confirms that “credit ratings affect a country’s economic growth” and that the severe downgrades of 2022 had immediate and measurable consequences for the cedi, foreign investment, and borrowing costs . A study examining the dynamic connectedness between public debt, exchange rate, credit rating, and economic growth in Ghana found that “connectedness among Ghana’s macroeconomic variables is crisis-driven,” meaning that during periods of stress, the linkages between ratings, the currency, and growth strengthen dramatically .

Part 4: 2024–2026 — The Recovery Period

Following the worst of the debt crisis, Ghana embarked on a comprehensive economic reform programme supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The recovery has been steady and has been reflected in successive rating upgrades.

The First Upgrades (2024)

The October 2024 upgrade marked the first positive rating action since the crisis. Moody’s cited “easing of domestic financing pressures, renewed access to international capital markets, and progress in debt restructuring negotiations” .

The 2025 Upgrades

S&P’s upgrade to B- in November 2025 was described as “Ghana’s highest rating since its 2022 debt default” and followed what S&P called “gradually strengthening balance of payments and fiscal positions” . In simpler terms, Ghana was “earning and managing its money better” .

Fitch’s upgrade to B- in June 2025 cited “stronger macroeconomic performance, fiscal consolidation, and progress in debt restructuring” .

The 2026 Upgrades

The May 2026 Fitch upgrade was particularly significant. Fitch raised Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from B- to B, maintaining a Positive Outlook . The upgrade reflected “a sharp fall in public debt-to-GDP, supported by robust real GDP growth, substantial fiscal consolidation efforts and currency appreciation, as well as a marked increase in international reserves that lowers external liquidity risks” .

Fitch noted that Ghana’s unencumbered reserves increased by $5.4 billion in 2025 to $12.3 billion, equivalent to 3.6 months of external payments . The agency projected that Ghana’s public debt could fall to around 46 per cent of GDP by 2027 .

Moody’s, in April 2026, revised Ghana’s outlook from stable to positive while affirming the Caa1 rating . Moody’s cited “improving macroeconomic conditions, easing domestic financing pressures, and the resumption of domestic bond issuances,” noting that “lower borrowing costs and improved liquidity conditions suggested that the government was gradually regaining access to funding without excessively crowding out private sector credit” .

Part 5: The Current Rating Landscape (June 2026)

As of June 2026, Ghana’s sovereign credit ratings are as follows :

Interpreting the Current Ratings:

Cumulative Recovery Since 2022

Ghana has recorded a cumulative five-notch recovery from the depth of the crisis in 2022 . BusinessDay analysis confirmed that the May 2026 Fitch upgrade marked the “highest credit rating level since June 2021” .

Part 6: Lessons from Ghana’s Credit Rating History

Lesson 1: Ratings Reflect Policy Choices, Not Fate

Ghana’s rating history demonstrates that sovereign credit ratings are not arbitrary. They respond—often with a lag, but predictably—to changes in fiscal policy, debt management, and economic governance. The B+ rating at the time of the 2007 Eurobond reflected sound fundamentals . The CCC ratings in 2022 reflected unsustainable debt and policy dysfunction . The recovery to B in 2026 reflects fiscal consolidation and reform .

Lesson 2: The Cost of Downgrades Is Real and Immediate

The academic literature confirms that “credit rating events have statistically significant impacts on foreign exchange markets,” with “larger magnitude for negative events” . During the 2022 crisis, each notch downgrade accelerated capital outflows, weakened the cedi, and increased the cost of servicing foreign debt .

Lesson 3: Outlooks Matter as Much as Ratings

The Positive Outlooks assigned by Moody’s (April 2026) and Fitch (May 2026) are not merely decorative. They signal to investors that further upgrades are possible—and that the current rating may understate the true creditworthiness trajectory. Outlooks shape investment decisions, particularly for institutional investors with medium-term holding periods.

Lesson 4: Convergence and Divergence Among Agencies

The three major rating agencies do not always move in lockstep. Currently, Fitch and S&P place Ghana in the B range, while Moody’s remains more conservative with Caa1. This divergence reflects differences in methodologies and weighting of factors such as governance, debt composition, and external buffers. Investors must understand these differences, not merely average them.

Lesson 5: The Path from Default to Investment Grade Is Long

Ghana remains in speculative grade territory. The country is still multiple notches away from investment grade (BBB- for Fitch/S&P; Baa3 for Moody’s). The Commonwealth Secretariat has noted that “credible fiscal consolidation, deeper domestic markets, transparent debt reporting, stronger SOE governance, and active investor relations form a coherent package that supports rating stability and upgrade potential” . Ghana has made progress on several of these fronts, but the journey is far from complete.

Part 7: Future Outlook — The Path to Investment Grade

Drivers of Further Upgrades

Fitch has indicated that a further upgrade could occur if Ghana maintains “continued fiscal prudence underpinned by improved public financial management, further normalisation of macroeconomic conditions evidenced by an expected decline in average inflation, and a further building of external buffers” .

Specific positive factors Fitch is watching:

• Continued debt-to-GDP reduction towards the projected 46% by 2027

• Further accumulation of foreign reserves beyond $12.3 billion

• Sustained primary surpluses

• Continued cedi stability and low inflation

Risks That Could Trigger Downgrades

Conversely, Fitch warned that “weaker fiscal performance, rising debt service costs, or failure to build external reserves could lead to a downgrade in future” . Given that Ghana’s interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to remain around 20% through 2027, any significant fiscal slippage would be reflected in rating assessments.

The Investment Grade Horizon

Investment grade is not imminent. The gap between B (Fitch) and BBB- (investment grade) is four notches. The gap between Caa1 (Moody’s) and Baa3 (investment grade) is even larger. Achieving investment grade will require sustained reform over several years, not quarters.

However, the Commonwealth Secretariat’s analysis suggests that the framework for upgrade is clear: “credible fiscal consolidation, deeper domestic markets, transparent debt reporting, stronger SOE governance, and active investor relations form a coherent package that supports rating stability and upgrade potential across diverse contexts” .

Conclusion: A Two-Decade Arc of Risk and Resilience

Ghana’s credit rating history from 2003 to 2026 traces a two-decade arc of risk accumulation, crisis, and resilience. The country entered international capital markets with a B+ rating in 2007, benefited from oil discoveries and democratic stability, but accumulated unsustainable debt through the 2010s. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed these vulnerabilities, triggering a cascade of downgrades that culminated in Selective Default in 2022.

The recovery since 2024 has been remarkable: from Ca (Moody’s) and CC (Fitch) to B (Fitch) and B- (S&P), with Positive Outlooks from both agencies . This represents a cumulative five-notch recovery and the highest rating since June 2021 .

But the arc is not complete. Ghana remains in speculative grade territory. The interest-to-revenue ratio is still high. External shocks—commodity price volatility, global financial conditions, climate risks—remain threats. The ratings agencies are watching not only the numbers but also the durability of institutional reforms.

For investors, the message is clear: Ghana’s creditworthiness has improved materially, but the country is not yet investment grade. The Positive Outlooks suggest further upgrades are possible, but the path depends on continued discipline.

For citizens, the stakes are equally clear: better credit ratings mean lower borrowing costs, which means more fiscal space for healthcare, education, and infrastructure—and less of the national budget consumed by debt service. The rating history is not merely a technical record for bond traders. It is a measure of national economic management with tangible consequences for every Ghanaian.

The rating agencies provide the report card. Ghana’s policymakers write the underlying performance.

Quick Reference: Ghana’s Credit Rating History Timeline

Current Ratings (June 2026):

• Fitch: B (Positive Outlook)

• Moody’s: Caa1 (Positive Outlook)

• S&P: B- (Stable Outlook)

Source: Accra Street Journal 

Last Updated on June 10, 2026 by Samuel Kwame Boadu

Samuel Kwame Boadu

Samuel Kwame Boadu is a Ghanaian media entrepreneur and storyteller with a passion for amplifying urban voices and uncovering everyday truths. He is the Editor-in-Chief and Founder of Accra Street Journal, a dynamic digital platform dedicated to capturing the pulse of Ghana’s capital—its people, culture, challenges, business, sports and innovations.

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