Ghana’s Farmers Could See Relief as World Bank Projects 12% Fall in Fertilizer Prices in 2027

Ghana’s agricultural sector could benefit from an anticipated 12 percent decline in global fertilizer prices in 2027, easing input cost pressures on farmers, though lingering geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions could undermine the expected relief.

Ghana’s agricultural sector could benefit from an anticipated decline in global fertilizer prices in 2027, potentially easing input cost pressures on farmers and supporting food production, although lingering geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions could undermine the expected relief.

The World Bank Group, in its October Commodity Outlook Report 2026, projects that global fertilizer prices will decline by 12 percent in 2027, following an estimated 14 percent increase in 2026.

The report says the projected decline will be driven by easing input costs, recovering supplies and increased exports from producers outside the Gulf region.

Why It Matters for Ghana

For Ghana, where fertilizer affordability is an important consideration for agricultural production, the expected reduction could provide some relief to farmers and potentially moderate production costs in the 2027 farming season.

The stakes are significant. Fertilizer typically represents between 30 and 40 per cent of variable input costs for Ghanaian maize and rice farmers, and affordability has been a persistent constraint on yields. Ghana’s agricultural growth slowed sharply to 2.6 per cent in August 2026, down from 8.6 per cent a year earlier — a deceleration that input cost relief would directly address.

However, the outlook suggests that the benefits may not be immediate, as fertilizer prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026 despite recent declines in global markets.

The Rollercoaster of 2026

The World Bank notes that its fertilizer price index fell by 22 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter and continued to decline in October, reversing the surge recorded in the second quarter following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite this recovery, the report projects urea prices to average 21 percent higher in 2026, reflecting the sharp increases recorded in the first half of the year. Urea prices are, however, expected to fall by 16 percent in 2027.

Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), another important fertilizer input, is projected to increase by 7 percent in 2026 before declining by about 18 percent in 2027.

Meanwhile, prices of muriate of potash (MOP) are expected to rise by 10 percent in 2026 before falling by 9 percent in 2027.

The Domestic Transmission Question

The projected declines across the three fertilizer categories could offer Ghana an opportunity to reduce input cost pressures on farmers, particularly if the reductions in international prices are reflected in domestic import and retail prices.

That conditional is doing considerable work. Ghana’s fertilizer market is import-dependent, and international price movements have historically reached farmers only partially — filtered through importers’ margins, freight costs, currency movements and distribution markups. A 12 per cent global decline does not automatically become a 12 per cent domestic reduction.

For the government, the outlook also highlights the importance of planning agricultural input procurement and distribution around changing global market conditions to improve affordability and support farmers.

The Risks Are Tilted Upward

However, the World Bank cautions that risks to the fertilizer price outlook remain tilted to the upside.

It warns that an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could worsen shipping disruptions and push up natural gas and other input costs, potentially triggering renewed increases in fertilizer prices.

The report also identifies export restrictions by major producers as another potential source of price volatility.

That combination — energy prices, shipping routes and producer policy — means the anticipated decline is not guaranteed. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, so any sustained spike in gas prices transmits directly into urea and ammonia costs within months.

Quick Facts

The World Bank Group’s October Commodity Outlook Report 2026 projects global fertilizer prices will fall 12 percent in 2027, after an estimated 14 percent rise in 2026, driven by easing input costs, recovering supplies and increased exports from producers outside the Gulf.

The Bank’s fertilizer price index fell 22 percent in Q3 2026 and continued declining in October, reversing the second-quarter surge that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz class=””>. Urea prices are projected to average 21 percent higher in 2026 before falling 16 percent in 2027; DAP is set to rise 7 percent in 2026 before falling about 18 percent in 2027; and MOP is expected to rise 10 percent in 2026 before declining 9 percent in 2027.

For Ghana, the benefit depends on whether international declines transmit into domestic import and retail prices, and government planning of input procurement and distribution around global market conditions. Risks remain tilted upward, with Middle East conflict escalation, shipping disruptions, natural gas costs and producer export restrictions all capable of reversing the projected relief.

Source: Accra Street Journal

Last Updated on November 12, 2026 by Samuel Kwame Boadu

Samuel Kwame Boadu

Samuel Kwame Boadu is a Ghanaian media entrepreneur and storyteller with a passion for amplifying urban voices and uncovering everyday truths. He is the Editor-in-Chief and Founder of Accra Street Journal, a dynamic digital platform dedicated to capturing the pulse of Ghana’s capital—its people, culture, challenges, business, sports and innovations.

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